One is called NANC, named after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and it tracks how Democrats invest. The data on their performance shows they do have an edge. About 65% of traders now expect policymakers to reduce the benchmark rate at their September meeting, compared with less than 50% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Consumer price index data came in softer than expected for the month of May, marking the second straight month of cooling inflation readings. Consumer prices rose 3.3% year-over-year, down from April’s 3.4% increase.

Why the Fed’s rate-cutting agenda could spark a recession, according to top economist Mohamed El Erian

US stocks jumped Wednesday as traders took in a soft inflation report and revved up their hopes for Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. All three benchmark indexes ticked higher, with the Dow surging by over 200 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching record highs. Fed officials kept rates unchanged at the conclusion of this week’s policy meeting, though they acknowledged “modest” progress in bringing down inflation. The central bank is now penciling in just one rate cut by the end of 2024, down from three cuts anticipated earlier this year, according to projections released Wednesday afternoon. Fed fund futures show a 71% chance the Fed could cut rates three times or more by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Wage growth keeps slowing for job switchers as US labor market cools off

Tesla stock jumped more than 6% as Elon Musk said on X that his $56 billion compensation package was headed for shareholder approval. DealBook reported Thursday morning that Vanguard and BlackRock would vote in favor of the pay deal, giving Musk a boost from two of the world’s biggest asset managers. In May, the producer price index slid 0.2% month over month against forecasts of a 0.1% decrease. According to Bloomberg, that marks the largest decline for the wholesale-inflation gauge since October. There was momentum for bipartisan reforms to the STOCK Act around the 2022 midterm elections. Lawmakers from both parties say banning stock trading could be a disincentive for people to want to serve in Congress and for staffers to build careers on Capitol Hill.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Notch New Closing Records

  1. Payne worked at the Office of Congressional Ethics when some lawmakers’ financial activities triggered ethics investigations and when public pressure built to pass reforms.
  2. Members of Congress have information that most investors don’t have, and they write laws that could impact the companies they are invested in.
  3. Secondly, we’re assuming that the market will value Nvidia relative to its earnings the same over time.
  4. Instead, an independent Wall Street Journal commission decides whether a share is to be included or excluded.
  5. “And around 40 members of the House made like 1,500 trades, almost $100 million.”
  6. They believe that information provides an edge on the market, and companies are selling access to tools that track those profitable lawmaker trades.

Once the central bank’s two-day event concludes on Wednesday, investors will tune in to hear remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell, and learn more about where interest rates are headed. Monetary policy isn’t expected dowmarkets to change at this meeting, though hope are still high for rate cuts to start in September. Even as officials dial back their outlook for cuts, markets are optimistic that monetary policy will soon loosen.

Stock market today: S&P 500 closes at a record high as investors await the latest Fed decision, May CPI


Fed fund futures show that investors see a 62% chance the Fed will cut rates three times or more by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. US stocks rose on Wednesday as investors took in cool inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance on rate cuts, helping the S&P 500 to another record close. Fed officials noted progress on inflation, though interest rates were left unchanged after this week’s policy meeting, with one interest-rate cut penciled in. However, investors remain more optimistic, expecting two 25-basis-point cuts, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.


“I think KRUZ has outperformed the market over the last three months, both on an average and a risk-return basis, as NANC has done it since inception,” he said. “When you’re a trader or an investor, you’re looking for some sort of edge, and people believe this is a sort of edge,” he said. “That’s around like $100 million of stock being traded in that time,” he said.

After Nvidia’s Stock Split, Can It Reach $1,200 Again?


If that growth rate holds, it would take roughly nine years for Nvidia’s stock to reach $1,200 again. His group is advocating for Congress to pass a new ethics reform. The ETHICS Act would ban lawmakers, their spouses and their dependent children from trading individual stocks. But the products underscore that the problem that the law was designed to fix — to eliminate the impression that lawmakers are profiting from information they learn in their official capacities — is still an issue.

But before you get too excited, there are a few pretty huge assumptions there. We’re assuming that projected CAGR holds beyond 2030 and that it isn’t overinflated to begin with. Secondly, we’re assuming that the market will value Nvidia relative to its earnings the same over time. Just because a company grows its earnings doesn’t mean its stock price will respond in kind, but it’s a useful simplification for now. Let’s start by assuming Nvidia’s growth will slow from the past three years. predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 28.5% through 2030 for the entire AI market.

“We keep a close eye on the internet because making government work for the people is something that needs a lot more attention than it currently gets,” said Joshua Graham Lynn, the CEO of RepresentUS. The nonprofit decided to team up with the financial platform to make another push to overhaul the STOCK Act. “The STOCK Act never was going to completely get at the problem because it was more like an X-ray that would show where the issue is, with the disclosure,” Payne told NPR.

“And around 40 members of the House made like 1,500 trades, almost $100 million.” He saw trades by lawmakers in both parties spiking at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — and found roughly 15 senators making trades from February into April 2020. “Those reports started really, really taking off during 2020, 2021 — when COVID trading happened.” Barring a significant shock that pushes inflation sharply higher again, the next move for interest rates is lower.